Elections in January – Who will win?

    Posted on: 2019-12-08

Elections in January – Who will win?

In contrast to the presidential election, the parliamentary elections are more uncertain. Although the November 2018 local elections resulted in significant victories for the KMT, this may not benefit the party on the national stage, contrary to previous predictions. Economy is one issue in Taiwan’s elections. Taiwan’s investments in China is falling as capital moves in the direction of South East Asia and also home to Taiwan.

 

 

 

 

 

By Michael Danielsen, chairman of Taiwan Corner

The polls continue to show that President Tsai is on course to be re-elected on January 11. The main contender from the KMT, Han Kuo-yu, is trailing her by 13-14 percentage points. If James Soong from the People’s First Party (PFP) decides to run, it may weaken Han Kuo-yu even further and benefit President Tsai.

Election – Parliament

The parliamentary elections are more uncertain. Although the November 2018 local elections resulted in significant victories for the KMT, this may not benefit the party on the national stage, contrary to previous predictions.

There are several reasons for this: One survey, for example, reveals that eight of the KMTs newly elected administrations are already deeply unpopular. Also, the KMT may not be as popular as before in the big cities of Kaohsiung and Taichung.

The parliament has 113 seats. Of these 34 members are elected from proportional voting on a list system that requires parties to pass a threshold of 5%.

The KMT may gain seats. However, both the KMT and the DPP face stiff competition from smaller parties for party  list votes. Despite its internal problems, the smaller party New Power Party appears likely to pass the threshold and the same goes for Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je’s Taiwan People’s
Party.

How the parliament is going to look like after the election is thus uncertain. The composition of the parliament can greatly impact President Tsai’s ability to govern.

Election – Taiwanese in China impact election?

Taiwan’s investments in China is falling as capital moves in the direction of South East Asia and also home to Taiwan. This is starting to reduce the influence of the Taiwanese in China over elections. These voters tend to vote for the blue parties rather than the green parties that cluster around the governing party, the DPP.

Investments this year have reached US$2.8 billion, dropping from US$6.5 billion in the same period last year. According to The Economist magazine, China accounted for 84% of Taiwan’s foreign investment in 2010. To date this year, it has reached only 34%.

Election – China’s influence

China has asked Chinese students in Taiwan to go home before the election. If China is so concerned about how democracy may impact the Chinese students, it would be better for China to stop allowing Chinese students in Taiwan.  Also, Chinese airlines are providing cheap airfares for trips to Taiwan around the election time.