By Michael Danielsen, chairman of Taiwan Corner
It was a major setback for the recall movement and the governing DPP when the KMT sweep all districts in the recall votes on Saturday July 26. The result can have negative implications for defense, foreign affairs and national budget depending on the future political power sharing and if better cooperation in the parliament is possible between opposition and government. If the recent past is any indicator, this is not likely to happen. The 7 recall votes on August 23 can result in a similar outcome if no strategies are used. DPP would need 6 seats to gain a majority.
Several factors contributed to the outcome of the recall votes in the 24 districts, but as seen in the January 2024 elections, domestic issues remain the primary concern for Taiwanese voters. Economic development is at the forefront and may be an underlying theme during the recall votes no matter that this was not a part of reasons for recalls.
In addition, DPP’s recent calls for unity and anti-China sentiments, appeared less persuasive, as a strong sense of national cohesion already exists. Voters appear to be increasingly prioritizing practical improvements to their quality of life over abstract appeals. KMT will certainly not deliver that, but DPP has not done sufficiently enough in the eyes of many voters during 8 years in power and with a majority in the parliament.
Another factor the recall votes failed is of course that the 24 districts are largely pro-KMT. Despite the current parliamentary climate, few appeared to support replacing the KMT legislators with others from the same party. Additionally, solving disagreements through recalls may not appeal to all Taiwanese.
What are the political issues?
The time was right for recall votes because changes in the recall law will make future recalls even more difficult to establish. If not for this reason, one could argue that the recall votes came too soon as the impact of the new laws and budget changes have not yet been fully felt.
The list is longer and more complex but here are some of the issues that the Taiwanese government is facing:
- Taiwan’s constitutional court is not working. The opposition continue to block nomination to the constitutional court making it non-operational due to the voting rules that the opposition put into place earlier in the year.
- Increasing the defense budget to 3% as the Taiwan’s People Party (TPP) agreed to before the election appears to be very difficult to reach and there are continued debate about the defense budget no matter the threats from China.
- Budget cuts have impacted social well-fare programs and added 25% cut to local governments. The opposition parties prefer to provide NT$10,000 cash handout to the Taiwanese.
The role of Taiwan’s People Party
All these issues could have been played out differently and more positively. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) holds a pivotal position in determining the parliamentary majority. This unique placement provides the TPP with the ability to influence policy directions while potentially impacting outcomes for the Taiwanese society. The party has the option to align with either the KMT or DPP on various issues, affecting the formation of a majority in support of its policy objectives. Similar roles for smaller parties have been observed in other countries, such as Denmark.
No matter the current corruption case against the former chairman Ko Wen-je, who is in prison, playing this position more wisely could gain political respect.
Power sharing and Compromises are the Future
Taiwan would benefit from a significantly improved political environment, particularly in light of external pressures from China and the challenges faced by its hardworking population.
Currently, practices such as power sharing, mutual political respect, and effective compromises are not yet on par with those observed in Scandinavian political systems. Establishing these foundations would foster greater public trust in both political institutions and the overall governance process.
Why not begin with the Taiwan People’s Party, which initially planned to replace all parliamentarians in the middle of the election period? The replacement could be a new beginning.
